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  • How AOC’s presidential odds stand after Munich appearances

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    New York’s Democratic Representative Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez’s highest‑profile outing on the world stage yet at the Munich Security Conference last week has sharpened speculation about her long‑term political ambitions.

    Newsweek has reached out to Ocasio‑Cortez via email for comment. 

    Why It Matters

    Ocasio‑Cortez’s emergence on an international platform comes as Democrats begin to look beyond President Donald Trump’s time in office and toward a generational reshaping of party leadership. 

    How seriously she is taken as a future contender is increasingly reflected in both betting odds and prediction markets.

    What To Know

    Ocasio‑Cortez’s trip to Germany marked her most prominent international appearance to date, placing the New York congresswoman alongside world leaders and senior policymakers at one of the world’s most closely watched global security forums.

    She has defended the purpose of her trip and rejected suggestions that it was about positioning herself for a White House run.

    But William Kedjanyi, political betting analyst at Star Sports, told Newsweek the Munich Security Conference represented a significant step in how her political trajectory is now being viewed.

    “AOC’s appearance at the Munich Security Conference was a notable step, an outing onto the world stage where she received as much attention as some other heads of state,” Kedjanyi said. 

    “While it was not all plain sailing, the fact she was there shows an intention and a seriousness to be at the very least heavily involved in any conversation.”

    Although Ocasio‑Cortez has built her reputation largely through domestic policy battles, the Munich appearance elevated her international profile and placed her within a broader discussion about future Democratic leadership. 

    The visibility alone has contributed to renewed scrutiny of her standing in early 2028 calculations.

    Star Sports currently lists Ocasio‑Cortez at 12/1 to win the 2028 U.S. presidential election, placing her behind Vice President JD Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, but ahead of a wide field of potential contenders. 

    Within the Democratic race, she is priced at 7/1 to secure the party’s nomination, second only to Newsom, the 6/4 favorite.

    “Newsom is very much dominating the betting from the Democrat side, but Ocasio‑Cortez is the only person to get close,” Kedjanyi said. 

    “If she were to express a serious interest in running, I’m sure that those odds would go much shorter than they are now.”

    Kedjanyi also pointed to shifting dynamics on the Democratic left, where Ocasio‑Cortez is widely seen as a natural heir to the progressive movement once led nationally by Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

    “There’s no doubt that there is a lot of youth energy behind Ocasio‑Cortez, particularly with Senator Bernie Sanders on the left of the party, perhaps not as prominent as he once was after his two runs for president,” he said. 

    “And despite having perhaps the largest international profile of any Democrats at this moment in time, Newsom does have an open exposed flank on his left.”

    Prediction Markets

    Prediction markets tracking the 2028 Democratic nomination and the presidential race more broadly largely mirror the picture seen in traditional betting, with Newsom consistently positioned as the front-runner and Ocasio‑Cortez grouped among the leading alternatives.

    Kalshi and PolyMarket put her chances of securing the Democratic presidential nominee at 11 percent and 10 percent, respectively, at the time of writing, with Kalshi’s figure rising 3 percentage points since her arrival in Germany on February 12 and PolyMarket’s staying relatively flat.  

    While no sharp post‑Munich surge has been recorded, markets continue to place Ocasio‑Cortez firmly within the top tier of speculative contenders, reflecting her sustained national prominence and the added exposure from her highest‑profile international appearance to date.

    Prediction markets tend to move decisively only after candidates signal formal intent, meaning her position could shift quickly if she were to indicate clearer presidential ambitions.

    What People Are Saying

    William Kedjanyi, political betting analyst at Star Sports, said: “It would be no surprise if Ocasio‑Cortez could mount a challenge from the left of the party using its progressive wing.”

    President Donald Trump said of Ocasio‑Cortez following her appearance in Munich: “I watched AOC answering questions in Munich. This was not a good look for the United States.”

    He added in remarks to reporters on Air Force One: “She’s just Trump deranged. She was so deranged. She is an angry woman. But I watched the other two speaking and answering basic questions.

    “I never heard her speak very much, and they started answering questions. She had no idea what was happening. She had no idea how to answer, you know, very important questions concerning the world, but she can’t answer questions concerning New York City, either, because New York City has got some problems.

    Representative Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez said during a Sunday: “Progressive foreign policy has not been represented internationally in a very long time, if not ever, and I felt that it was very important to start bringing that into spaces of power.”

    She added: “I remain ambitious, but my ambitions are in changing our political environment. That’s why I—when I was first elected—my ambition was to change the Democratic Party.”

    New York Democratic strategist Jon Reinish previously told The Hill: “She has flubbed on foreign policy before, in speeches, in interviews, in some pretty high‑profile ways. So it was a bit surprising to me that she put herself in a position to do so again, on an even more high‑profile stage.”

    What Happens Next

    Ocasio‑Cortez has not officially declared any intention to run for president, and the Democratic field remains unsettled with years still to go before formal campaigning begins.

    In a polarized era, the center is dismissed as bland. At Newsweek, ours is different: The Courageous Center—it’s not “both sides,” it’s sharp, challenging and alive with ideas. We follow facts, not factions. If that sounds like the kind of journalism you want to see thrive, we need you.

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  • El Clásico: Real Madrid vs Barcelona Lineups, Odds, Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch, Mbappé, Yamal

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    One of the most highly anticipated matches of the year is upon us as superstars Lamine Yamal and Kylian Mbappé go head-to-head in El Clásico as Real Madrid faces Barcelona.

    El Clásico: Real Madrid vs Barcelona

    Real Madrid and Barcelona renew their iconic rivalry at the Santiago Bernabéu in what could be a decisive clash in the La Liga title race. Carlo Ancelotti’s side have been in impressive form, led by the brilliance of Jude Bellingham, who has quickly become their talisman with goals from midfield and a commanding presence in big matches. Vinícius Júnior’s pace and flair on the left flank will test Barcelona’s defense, while Toni Kroos and Federico Valverde provide control and energy in the middle of the park. Madrid will look to set the tempo early and feed off the home crowd’s energy.

    Barcelona, meanwhile, comes into the contest eager to reassert itself after some inconsistent performances. Xavi’s men have shown resilience and flashes of their trademark passing rhythm, but they’ll need Robert Lewandowski firing and Lamine Yamal’s creativity to trouble Madrid’s back line. The return of key players from injury could give Barça a boost, especially in midfield, where Pedri and Gavi’s composure will be crucial. With pride, momentum, and top spot on the line, this Clásico promises tension, drama, and moments of individual brilliance from both sides.

    Date, Start Time, TV Channel, Live Stream

    • Date: Sunday, October 26, 2025
    • Time: 11:15 AM ET
    • TV Channel: ESPN Select / ESPN Deportes / ESPN2
    • Stream: Fubo (try for free) / ESPN Select (watch now)

    Live stream Real Madrid vs Barcelona for free with Fubo: Start your subscription now!

    Live stream Real Madrid vs Barcelona with ESPN Select: Start your subscription now!

    Potential Lineups

    Real Madrid: Courtois; Valverde, Militao, Asencio, Carreras; Guler, Tchouameni, Bellingham; Mastantuono, Mbappe, Vinicius

    Barcelona: Szczesny; E Garcia, Araujo, Cubarsi, Balde; Pedri, De Jong; Yamal, Fermin, Rashford; Ferran

    Betting Odds

    Real Madrid: -105

    Barcelona: +225

    Draw: +310

    Total: 3.5

    Spread: Real Madrid -0.5

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  • Odds of government shutdown lasting another month jump—Polymarket

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    The odds of a prolonged federal government shutdown stretching into mid-November have jumped as negotiations to pass a funding bill continue stalling in the Senate, according to Polymarket betting odds.

    Newsweek reached out to spokespersons for Senate Majority Leader John Thune, a South Dakota Republican, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, a New York Democrat, for comment via email.

    Why It Matters

    The government shutdown began October 1 after legislators failed to reach consensus on a bill that would allocate funding to the federal government, and the stoppage could last several more weeks, as Democrats and Republicans continue to remain at odds over key issues to broker a deal.

    There are many impacts of government shutdowns—hundreds of thousands of federal workers may be unpaid or furloughed, and there can be disruptions to passport processing applications, national parks and government benefits.

    Republicans control both the House of Representatives and the Senate, but the Senate filibuster requires 60 votes to advance bills, so the continuing resolution has to gain more bipartisan support to pass. Democrats have pushed for concessions on health care funding, but Republicans have sought to pass a bill that already advanced through the House.

    What To Know

    The likelihood of the shutdown lasting another month has increased over the past few days, according to Polymarket, which showed a 38 percent chance of the shutdown lasting until November 16, as of 4:30 p.m. ET Friday.

    That’s up from only about 10 percent a week ago.

    Polymarket on Friday gave the shutdown a 17 percent chance of ending from October 31 to November 3, and a 15 percent chance from November 4 to November 7.

    There is a 9 percent chance it ends from November 12 to November 15, according to Polymarket.

    Polymarket traders have bet nearly $500,000 on the date that the federal government will reopen.

    Kalshi showed similar results. It gave a 70 percent chance that the shutdown would last 35 days and become the longest in U.S. history, a 51 percent chance that it would last more than 40 days and a 39 percent chance it would stretch over 45 days.

    The Senate again voted Thursday on the bill to end the shutdown, but there has been no movement in the more than two weeks since it began. Only two Democratic senators—Catherine Cortez-Masto of Nevada and John Fetterman of Pennsylvania—voted in favor of the bill.

    Thune sent the Senate home after the vote, meaning the shutdown will last until at least Monday. The House of Representatives has not been in session since September 19.

    The Republican leader told MSNBC on Thursday that he has told Democratic leaders he is willing to make a deal to hold a vote on Affordable Care Act subsidies that are poised to end if Congress does not act. This has been a sticking point for Democrats, but it has yet to be seen whether his offer is enough to convince others to change their vote.

    What People Are Saying

    Schumer, on X Wednesday: “If Republicans continue to ignore the healthcare crisis they’ve manufactured: People will go bankrupt People will get sick People will lose insurance People will fail to get the care they need and more people will needlessly die.”

    Thune, on MSNBC Thursday: “There is a bill sitting at the desk right now that opens up the government, and you all know that. The president would sign it today. It’s simply a function of five Democrats joining the three Democrats who are already voting to open up the government. And I think that’s the quickest way to end this.”

    Cortez-Masto, in a statement September 30: ““President Trump and Congressional Republicans are already hurting Nevadans who are dealing with high costs, an economic slowdown, and a looming health care crisis. This administration doesn’t care about Nevadans, but I do. That’s why I cannot support a costly shutdown that would hurt Nevada families and hand even more power to this reckless administration.”

    What Happens Next

    The Senate is set to reconvene Monday, and a deal to bring the shutdown to an end will be a top priority. The House has canceled votes and is unlikely to return until the shutdown is over.

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  • Zohran Mamdani’s odds of winning NYC mayoral race hit new high

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    Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani’s chances of becoming New York City’s mayor have hit a new high this week over former Governor Andrew Cuomo and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa.

    Why It Matters

    The 2025 New York City mayoral election is shaping up as one of the most closely watched political contests in the United States, with significant implications for national politics, the future of progressive policy and representation in America’s most populous city. Mamdani, if elected, would become New York City’s first Muslim mayor, marking a moment of historic significance amid a backdrop of religious and political polarization.

    His candidacy has reverberated nationally, drawing attacks from prominent conservatives and support from influential Democratic leaders. The election is also seen as a bellwether for shifts in urban policy priorities and party alignments, with issues like affordability, crime and the city’s response to President Donald Trump’s administration at the forefront.

    What To Know

    With the general election scheduled for November 4, Mamdani leads the field with a whopping 89.6 percent chance of victory, according to prediction market Polymarket at 9:47 p.m. ET Friday. His main rival, Cuomo, holds a 9.5 percent probability, while Sliwa has less than 1 percent.

    Mamdani’s odds hit a high at 1 p.m. ET Thursday, at 90.3 percent.

    Polling data reinforces Mamdani’s front-runner status. A Suffolk University poll released in late September placed Mamdani with 45 percent of likely voters, 20 points ahead of Cuomo, who captured 25 percent. Other contenders at the time, including Sliwa and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, trailed with single digits.

    The dynamics of the race shifted after Adams ended his reelection campaign. Some analyses indicate Adams’ departure could help consolidate opposition votes behind Cuomo.

    What People Are Saying

    Columbia University professor Robert Y. Shapiro, to Newsweek via email on Friday when asked if Sliwa potentially dropping out would help Cuomo: “Yes, if Sliwa drops out, his voters are likely to want to vote against Mamdani, who has been amply demonized as a too far extreme Marxist/communist/socialist and who has supported defunding the police, a policy totally at odds with the gung-ho law and order support of Sliwa’s Republican and anti-crime followers. The only way to defeat Mamdani is to support his closest rival Cuomo. It is simple arithmetic. Mamdani’s lead over Cuomo would significantly tighten.” 

    Mamdani, on X Wednesday: “Every day, Donald Trump issues a new threat against an American city — very often his own hometown. But we can stand up to his bullying and win. As Mayor, I’ll work every single day with our state and federal partners to protect New York City.”

    Trump, on Truth Social Thursday: “Best thing that could happen to the Republican Party? A Communist Mayor in NYC. The Dems have gone stone cold CRAZY! President DJT foxbusiness.com/video/63805351”

    What Happens Next

    The race concludes with the general election on November 4. While Mamdani commands a sizable lead, questions remain about whether his opponents can consolidate enough support to close the gap.

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