WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — With more than three weeks left of hurricane season, Subtropical Storm Nicole poses a new threat to Florida this week even as the state continues its recovery from Hurricane Ian.
Nicole formed northeast of the Bahamas early Monday. National Hurricane Center forecasters predicted it could bear down on Florida’s east coast Wednesday night as a strong tropical storm or hurricane.
The NHC warned Nicole could bring a “prolonged period of hazardous weather” to Florida, the northwestern Bahamas and the U.S. southeastern coast this week. The NHC issued both hurricane and tropical storm watches for Florida’s eastern coast Monday.
Here’s what to know about Subtropical Storm Nicole:
What is the forecast for Nicole?
Nicole could approach hurricane strength when it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and eastern Florida Wednesday and Thursday.
“Right now, we have it just under hurricane strength prior to landfall Thursday morning in Florida, but it’s definitely on our radar, highlighting the potential for further strengthening,” AccuWeather meteorologist Brandon Buckingham told USA TODAY.
The NHC forecast showed a potential for dangerous storm surge, damaging winds and heavy rainfall in those areas. A storm becomes a hurricane when sustained winds hit 74 mph, according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Nicole is projected to progress westward over the next three or four days, according to Buckingham. The forecast track showed Nicole’s center approaching the northwestern Bahamas on Tuesday, moving near or over those islands Wednesday and approaching Florida’s east coast by Wednesday night.
“This will begin to bring rain and gusty winds across the Bahamas likely during the day Tuesday,” Buckingham said. “From Tuesday night into Wednesday, we will see those similar impacts begin to ramp up across the east coast of Florida.”
A hurricane watch is in effect for the northwestern Bahamas, according to the NHC.
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NHC forecasters anticipated Nicole to be a large storm, and regardless of its exact path, widespread impacts from coastal flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf and rip currents and beach erosion could affect much of the southeastern U.S. coast and portions of the northwestern and central Bahamas during the coming week.
What is a subtropical storm?
Tropical and subtropical storms both develop out of low-pressure systems over warm water and have maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or higher. Both storms can bring high winds, dangerous surf and flooding.
However, a tropical storm’s strongest winds wrap tightly around its core. As it grows stronger and better organized, this makes the distinctive eye of a hurricane.
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A subtropical storm’s strongest winds usually occur much farther from the center. Subtropical storms are also much less symmetrical than a tropical storm.
A subtropical storm can develop into a tropical storm if it spends enough time over warm water and thunderstorms develop near the center of circulation, according to the National Weather Service.
Where is Subtropical Storm Nicole located?
Nicole was over 680 miles east of West Palm Beach in South Florida and about 520 miles east of northwestern Bahamas early Monday, according to the NHC.
The storm’s maximum wind speeds were at 45 mph.
Nicole was moving north-northwest near 14 mph, with a turn toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed expected later Monday, according to the NHC’s forecast. A westward or west-southwestward motion was expected Tuesday through early Thursday.
How can Floridians prepare?
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency as a precaution for 34 counties within Nicole’s potential path, the Governor’s Office announced Monday.
Florida’s Division of Emergency Management encouraged residents Sunday to review disaster preparedness plans and prepare for an increased risk of coastal flooding, heavy winds, rain, rip currents and beach erosion.
Officials said wind gusts along the East Coast could be expected as soon as Tuesday.
What other storms are out there?
A well-defined area of low pressure called Invest 97L was located about 650 miles east of Bermuda Monday and continued to produce gale-force winds, the NHC’s forecast track showed.
Invest 97L showed a 60-percent chance of development over the next two days, with conditions possibly becoming more favorable Tuesday, according to the NHC.
Even if it does develop, Invest 97L would likely have short lifespan as an approaching cold front is expected to quickly sweep it toward the east, according to Buckingham.
USA TODAY
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