Vladimir Putin is facing a major military crisis after Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin declared war on Moscow’s own defense ministry, claiming Kremlin officials had killed thousands of his soldiers.
In a statement issued Friday night, the FSB security agency said it had “legally and reasonably begun criminal proceedings” against the Wagner Group warlord “for the organization of armed insurrection.”
The feud between Prigozhin and Russia’s ministry of defense has been building for months but now appears to have boiled over.
According to Russian state media, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that Putin is aware of the rapidly unfolding situation and that “all necessary measures are being taken.”
“Prigozhin’s statements and actions are actually the calls for the beginning of an armed civil conflict on the territory of Russia and are a ‘stab in the back’ for Russian servicemen,” officials added.
The move comes after Prigozhin accused Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of having hidden “colossal” failings on the battlefield from Putin, claiming that 2,000 Wagner men were killed as a result of strikes ordered by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
In response to Prigozhin’s allegations, Moscow issued a strong denial and a procession of generals have lined up to urge Wagner fighters to stand down.
In one video appeal, Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseev, first deputy chief of the general staff of the armed forces, said that Prigozhin does not have the authority to give orders. “This is a state coup,” he insisted, “come to your senses!”
Meanwhile, the Deputy Commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, Sergei Surovikin — known as “General Armageddon” — urged Wagner to hold its positions and not to turn on its own allies. “Stop the columns, return them to the points of permanent deployment,” he pleaded.
Rolling the dice
Earlier Friday, the Wagner Group founder questioned Moscow’s rationale for launching its invasion of Ukraine, saying that “the Armed Forces of Ukraine were not going to attack Russia with NATO,” and that “the war was needed for a bunch of scumbags to triumph and show how strong of an army they are.”
In a bombastic video statement he called the Russian military leadership “evil” and vowed to march for “justice,” threatening anyone who stood in his way.
Speaking to POLITICO, Colonel Philip Ingram, a former British military intelligence officer and ex-NATO planner, said that it was “too early to tell” if a coup was underway. “Clearly Moscow is worried and has activated a defense plan — Prigozhin is trying to push something focused on Shoigu, but it could be many things.”
According to Ian Garner, a Russia expert and author of a new book on the fallout of the war in Ukraine, the Wagner chief has overplayed his hand. “Prigozhin has rolled the dice, and now the state is going to do away with him for good,” he said.
“I suspect Prigozhin’s chances of launching a successful coup are slim. The state can offer everything he does — money, freedom, prestige — without him. Why would the Wagner fighters side with Prigozhin in a battle to the death?” Garner said.
Friday night’s chaos also amounts to a death knell for the Wagner Group, which has been active not just in Ukraine but also in Africa, according to one analyst.
“Whatever this is, it is definitely the dismantling of Wagner,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a political analyst and founder of the R-Politik consultancy firm, on her Telegram channel.
“This is the end of Prigozhin and the end of Wagner. An important moment: many within the elite will hold it against Putin that things have come this far and that the president did not react sooner. That’s why this entire story is also a blow to Putin.”
Meanwhile, the Kremlin published a pre-recorded video of President Putin in honor of Youth Day.
Gabriel Gavin and Tim Ross
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