The latest Cascade PBS/Elway Poll surveyed 403 registered voters statewide by land line, cell phone and via text to online survey. The poll has a 5% margin of error with a 95% level of confidence, which means if the survey had been repeated 100 times, the results would be within five percentage points of these results at least 95% of the time.
This poll was designed differently from most election polls. Voters were not asked, for example, “If the election was today, who would you vote for?” As Elway explains, this is a poll about the electorate, not about the election. “We give voters credit for knowing the election is not today,” he said. “This is actually more strategic information.”
The poll offers some useful insights into how people in the middle of the political spectrum may have a bigger impact on this election than in past contests. “One of the things you’re going to see here is that some of the softer partisans and less-likely voters are probably going to make a big difference,” Elway explained.
To get to this level of detail, the poll gets a bit granular on party identification. People who call themselves Independents or did not share their party affiliation were asked a follow-up question about whether they are more inclined to vote for Democrats or Republicans.
That nuance allowed the poll results to show, for example, that while 71% of Democrats said they would or could vote for Ferguson for governor, only 46% of Independents who vote Democrat said the same. Reichert’s numbers are appreciably different: 64% of Republicans said they would or could vote for him, but 54% of Independents who vote Republican said they would or could vote for the Republican frontrunner.
While most voters in Washington and around the country say the economy is the most important issue on their mind concerning this election, the other issues they’re worried about depend a lot on their party affiliation — but Democrat-voting Independents are talking about mostly the same issues as Democrats. Republican-voting Independents and the Republican base have one stark difference: Republican-leaning Independents are less concerned about immigration and more concerned about public affairs and crime than their Republican cousins.
Democratic-leaning Independent Sofia Argeres, 25, of Seattle said the economy is definitely her No. 1 election issue. “I think it’s pretty horrible and frustrating. I’m making the most money I ever have in my life making pizza in a dive bar,” said the poll participant.
“I graduated from college in 2020. Everything has been disappointment after disappointment. I’m really jaded about how everything is right now,” Argeres said.
She’s leaning toward not voting in the presidential election and hasn’t decided on the governor’s race or the three tax initiatives on the November ballot. But, as she and everyone else has been saying, the election is six months away.
“I haven’t done a ton of research yet,” Argeres said. “I feel like I’m the most apathetic I’ve ever been, which I’m disappointed with myself about. Even if I procrastinate, I do always vote and make an educated decision I stand behind. I’m just not there yet.”
Donna Gordon Blankinship
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