Novo Nordisk Ozempic sales expected to reach $17B in 2029

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Ozempic, Novo Nordisk’s (NVO) best-selling drug, will achieve annual sales of $17B by 2029 as it will continue its dominance in the diabetes market, according to a new report.

Data analytics and consulting company GlobalData expects Ozempic (semaglutide) sales to rise 23% in 2023 compared to last year to $12.5B.

In Q1 2023, Novo (NVO) reported Ozempic revenue of DKK 19.64B (~$2.85B).

GlobalData noted that Ozempic sales this year will be 54% higher than its closest competitor, Eli Lilly’s (NYSE:LLY) Trulicity (dulaglutide), which is forecast to have $8B in sales. Both are glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 agonists).

In Q1, Lilly (LLY) reported ~$1.98B in Trulicity revenue, a 14% increase from the year-ago period.

GlobalData said that the largest market for Ozempic will continue to be the US, which accounted for 65% of overall sales in 2022. Between 2023 and 2029, it is expected to generate $71B in revenue. That accounts for a compound annual growth rate of 9% over the period.

Ikram Triki, a drugs intelligence analyst at GlobalData, noted that Ozempic is also increasingly being used off-label as a weight-loss agent.

Semaglutide, the active pharmaceutical ingredient in Ozempic, is the same ingredient in Novo Nordisk’s (NVO) approved weight-loss treatment, Wegovy, though in different dosage strengths. Wegovy recorded DKK 4.56B (~$661M) in revenue in Q1. Semaglutide is also available in tablet form as Rybelsus.

“The substantial weight loss that patients achieve with Ozempic and other GLP1-targeting drugs makes insulin requirements lower for patients with type 2 diabetes, incentivizing both patients and healthcare practitioners to consider this medication,” the report noted.

Although the report doesn’t mention it, Lilly’s Mounjaro (tirzepatide) could put some pressure on the semaglutide franchise. While it is currently only approved for type 2 diabetes, Lilly is pursuing a weight-loss indication for it, which could come as soon as later this year.

Mounjaro had sales of $568.5M in Q1.

In a study, individuals on tirzepatide achieved up to 22.5% weight loss over 72 weeks. Those in the study were obese, but did not have diabetes. The weight loss percentage was greater than a semaglutide study over 68 weeks.