Florida Democrats have the chance to flip a competitive Republican-held state House seat on Tuesday, but they’ll need to overcome a hefty financial deficit to do it.
Fresh Take Florida reports that the GOP nominee, Osceola County School Board member Erika Booth, has raised $305,000 ahead of the special election, with $133,000 of that coming from party organizations and state legislators. Her Democratic opponent in this suburban Orlando constituency, businessman and Navy veteran Tom Keen, has brought in a smaller $115,000.
Joe Biden carried the 35th District 52-47 in 2020, though Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis won the same district by an imposing 56-43 spread in 2022, according to one analysis. Republican incumbent Fred Hawkins also secured reelection 55-45 in 2022, but he didn’t stick around long. The following June, DeSantis appointed him to serve as president of South Florida State College, even though, as many reports noted, Hawkins had no background in higher education.
Republicans hold an 84-35 supermajority in the 120-member chamber as well as a similarly lopsided edge in the state Senate, so a Keen victory wouldn’t jeopardize the party’s iron grip on state government. But Sunshine State Democrats, who scored a dramatic victory in last year’s race for mayor of Jacksonville, are hoping that a win on Tuesday would give them another chance to convince donors and allied groups that, despite a series of dispiriting election cycles, this longtime swing state remains competitive.
Former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who is the Democratic front-runner to take on Republican Sen. Rick Scott, made that argument at a November event for Keen. She also sought to link Keen’s efforts to her campaign against Scott, who immediately preceded DeSantis as governor.
“[Floridians] can’t afford to pay their bills,” she said. “And they need to understand that this is not coming from the federal government. This is coming from the failed policies that have come out from Tallahassee that started under Rick Scott.” Mucarsel-Powell continues to press the argument, campaigning with Keen at a get-out-the-vote effort on Saturday, along with Rep. Maxwell Frost, whose constituency includes most of the 35th District.
Keen, who has emphasized abortion rights and called for “ensuring fair insurance practices,” also highlighted the message his victory would send. The Democrat further faulted DeSantis, who tarried for weeks in scheduling this special election, for ultimately setting it to take place on the day after the first contest in the Republican presidential race.
“Our governor decided he didn’t want to be embarrassed the day before, when he’s going to be in Iowa for the Iowa caucuses,” Keen said in November. “So he made this special election follow the Iowa caucus. So we need to send him a signal and show that Democrats can actually turn out and win this seat.” Perhaps mindful of a potential loss, DeSantis doesn’t appear to have endorsed Booth, but she’s wedded herself tightly to him, pledging to “fight side-by-side with Governor DeSantis and President Trump to end the disastrous Biden Presidency.”
Jeff Singer
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