What is worth betting in the NFL in Week 7? And what are the best plays to help you make smart wagering decisions?
Betting analysts Eric Moody, Tyler Fulghum, Seth Walder, Anita Marks and Aaron Schatz are here to provide their thoughts.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.
Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 51.5). Clash of two 5-1 teams. The Dolphins have put up 73 points the past two weeks since losing to the Bills. The Eagles return home after the shocking loss to the Jets. How are you betting this game?
Fulghum: It’s really scary to do, but I’m going to play this game UNDER 51.5. Betting on the under in a game that will feature the Dolphins and Eagles offenses’ on the field is incredibly uncomfortable. The handicap I’m hoping comes true plays out with the Eagles ball-control offense shortening the game. They can limit time of possession and play volume for the Dolphins with their ruthlessly efficient offense holding onto the ball. The Dolphins’ rushing attack is also facing its toughest test in Philadelphia perhaps lowering their efficiency a bit. Look at it this way, at least if you lose you’ve likely seen a pretty entertaining shootout type of game.
Marks: Dolphins +3.5 (-157). The Dolphins had an impressive comeback last week. Their offense ranks first in a plethora of categories because there is no human on the planet who can cover Tyreek Hill. They can crush you vs. man and zone coverage, so the Eagles will have to pick their poison. Philadelphia’s defense is not as fierce as it was last season, sporting only a pressure rate ranked 19th out of the 32.
Moody: My recommendation is to back the Dolphins (+2.5) to cover the spread when former Alabama quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts meet Sunday. Miami speed on offense with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert poses a significant challenge for the Eagles’ defense. While the Dolphins’ offense ranks first in total yards and points scored per game, the Eagles rank second in total yards per game. I anticipate a high-scoring game between these two teams because of their weaknesses on defense. Even though the Eagles’ offensive and defensive lines could be difference-makers in this game, I believe the Dolphins make the proper adjustments and will win in a close game. Miami is 5-1 against the spread this season.
Walder: I’m going Dolphins (+2.5). The Dolphins’ defense is filled with untapped potential — it’s just too talented to be so mediocre! This is me being stubborn, but I really think any week now we’re going to see that side of the ball step up. Even if not, the Dolphins’ offense always gives them a great chance, even against the Eagles.
One more note supporting Miami: While the Eagles have a good run-stopping unit, they are elite at stopping only interior runs. Guess who runs outside more often than anyone else? The Dolphins.
Schatz: Sort of piggybacking on what Walder has written, I’ll point out again what I frequently write, which is that offense is more predictive than defense. It’s more likely that the Dolphins continue to have a stellar offense than it is that their defense continues to be one of the worst in the league (currently 27th in DVOA). Not only is their running game well-built to go around the stalwart Eagles run defense, but they should have an advantage passing, as the Eagles are 20th in pass defense DVOA including 26th against short passes (up to 15 air yards). I’ll go with Dolphins +2.5.
Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 43) is another big matchup this week. The Lions are 5-1 and have rattled off four wins in a row. The Ravens are 4-2 and have held opponents under 300 yards in five of six games played (the Lions have yet to be held under 350 yards). How are you betting this game?
Fulghum: This is another game I would bet UNDER the total. The Ravens’ defense is really good and gets a boost in facing the Lions at home as opposed to on the road. I’ve mentioned it many times, but Jared Goff has extreme home/road splits in his career but especially since becoming Detroit’s quarterback. The Lions also bring a feisty defense to this matchup against a Baltimore offense that hasn’t quite clicked in gear yet this season. Despite that, I still think Lamar Jackson is the superior quarterback on the field, so if I had to pick a side I would take Baltimore -3 as well.
Marks: Lions ML (+130). The Lions are 3-0 SU on the road on grass and 7-1 ATS their past eight games on the road. David Montgomery may be out, but Jahmyr Gibbs is expected to return to help keep this explosive offense rolling. The Lions are scoring touchdowns on 74% of their red zone opportunities. Meanwhile, the Ravens return from London and will face a Lions defense that ranks in the top 10.
Schatz: DVOA has the Lions all the way up to No. 2 this season, with the Ravens at a still-impressive No. 6. So normally I’m on the Ravens bandwagon, but I’m also a real believer in how good the Lions have been. They’re a very well-balanced team on both offense and defense, both passing and rushing. I understand the fear of Goff’s huge home/road splits from last year, but those splits don’t normally carry over from year to year. I’m happy to take Detroit +3 and the points.
Moody: I’m backing the Ravens (-3) to cover the spread. The Lions are one of three teams with a top-10 offense and defense. Statistically, the Ravens aren’t far behind. Despite Baltimore’s ups and downs throughout the season, I believe this is the game when everything comes together and they rise to the challenge of facing a team like the Lions. Teams coming off a game in London without a bye week are 8-4 straight up and 6-5-1 against the spread since 2007. It’s also complicated for the Lions offensively because they won’t have David Montgomery, and Goff has a history of inconsistent play on the road.
Which of the other games are you looking forward to betting the most this week?
Fulghum: The Steelers (+3) at Rams game intrigues me as well. A lot of rhetoric around the Rams this season has been positive, for good reason. Matthew Stafford is absolutely slingin’ it. Puka Nacua has been a dominant rookie. Cooper Kupp is, well, Cooper Kupp. Even Raheem Morris’ no-name defense (outside of Aaron Donald) has played above expectation.
Despite a 3-2 record, it seems like all of the rhetoric around the Steelers this season has been far more negative. Mostly because of the offense, Pittsburgh is not quite getting the love of some other teams around the league with comparable records.
This is the type of game that could give the Rams’ offense some fits. The Steelers have a dominant pass rush with TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith. RB Kyren Williams, who is excellent in pass protection, is out for the Rams. Stafford could see a lot of black and yellow in his face Sunday. SoFi Stadium will also be predominantly Steelers fans, too, making this a pseudo home game for Pittsburgh coming off their bye. I don’t mind playing the UNDER in this matchup, either.
What is your favorite prop bet on Sunday?
Walder: Devin White over 6.5 tackles + assists (-106). Sign me up for betting a linebacker tackles over against a Falcons offense that loves to run the ball. White records a higher tackle share against the run than the pass, and you know Arthur Smith wants to feed his running backs. I project White for 7.4 tackles + assists.
Schatz: Gabe Davis over 33.5 receiving yards (-125). I know Stefon Diggs has killed the Patriots in years past, but the Patriots are the No. 1 defense against WR1s this year. At the same time, they rank 30th in DVOA against WR2s and 32nd against other wide receivers. Both Diggs and Davis should be able to get plenty of targets against the Patriots since the Bills will likely dominate time of possession, but I’m going with Davis for the prop bet.
Moody: DJ Moore over 52.5 receiving yards. Even though Justin Fields won’t be active for the Bears this week, I find myself drawn to this prop bet. Moore has had at least eight targets in three consecutive games, and I believe that trend will continue even with Tyson Bagent at quarterback. The duo displayed some chemistry last week after Fields left the game and should have success against the Raiders’ secondary.
Is there anything else you’re playing on Sunday?
Fulghum: I’m playing the Chargers +5.5 at Chiefs because I’m a masochist and I’m playing Tampa Bay -2.5 vs. Atlanta because I do not trust Desmond Ridder on the road and the Bucs have been quite competent this year. I have to admit, my read on the job Todd Bowles and Baker Mayfield would do together this season is so far way off base. They’ve played very good football all six weeks of the season and their only two losses are to the Eagles and Lions. I thought they’d be terrible. They might win the NFC South.
Moody: Browns OVER 22.5 points. The Colts’ defense gives up the seventh most total yards and ninth most points per game. The Browns offense is very capable, and they showed that last week against stout 49ers defense. PJ Walker was under center, not Deshaun Watson, which made that performance even better. This season, the Browns offense has averaged 22.0 points per game on_ the road. On Sunday, I believe Cleveland’s will exceed that number.
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