The poll comes from Christopher Newport University and shows gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger pulling ahead of Winsome Earle-Sears.
FAIRFAX, Va. — Early voting begins in Virginia on Friday, September 19, and new polling shows Democrats are pulling ahead.
Christopher Newport University in Newport News, Virginia released a poll Thursday focused on the top three positions in the Commonwealth and priority issues for Virginia likely voters. The poll is based on 808 interviews of registered Virginia voters who are likely general election voters (i.e. someone who has voted in at least two of the last four general elections and indicates they plan to vote in the upcoming elections.)
In the gubernatorial race, researchers found that Democrat Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Winsome Earle Sears by 12 points, 52% to 40% among Virginia likely voters.
Spanberger also has a +10 favorability rating compared to Earle Sears’ -3 rating.
Earle Sears holds a lead among white voters (50% to 44%) and male voters (48% to 44%). Spanberger leads with Independents (55% to 32%), Black voters (85% to 6%), women (58% to 33%), voters younger than 44 (56% to 36%), and voters with college degrees (60% to 30%).
The Lieutenant Governor race is seeing similar results with Democrat Ghazala Hashmi leading Republican John Reid by 11 points among Virginia likely voters, 48% to 37%.
Both candidates are relatively unknown to Virginia voters, according to the poll.
In the race for Attorney General, Democrat Jay Jones is leading incumbent Republican Jason Miyares by 7 points among Virginia likely voters, 48% to 41%.
Former Virginia delegate and current George Mason University professor, David Ramadan, said early voting has become increasingly important for candidate success in recent years.
“It’s very indicative to who is gonna win this race or any race nowadays. The party that can get a higher number of early voters to come and vote for them, thus banking that vote,” Ramadan said. “It is likely going to be the party that’s gonna win. That is not just party-wide, that is candidate wide or that is specifically per candidate.”
Researchers also asked respondents what issue was top of mind when thinking about voting in the upcoming elections.
21% of Virginia likely voters said inflation or cost of living was their most pressing issue, 18% said threats to democracy, and 9% each said K-12 education, immigration, or crime.
“The old way of campaigning used to focus on the last seven days before election day, which is known as get out the vote. Nowadays, GOTV is really about 50 days because of early voting and because of the high number that turned out,” Ramadan said. “So campaigns have to adjust accordingly and instead just sell the message of the candidate.”
In terms of where approval of current Commonwealth leadership stands, 48% of likely voters said they approve of Governor Glenn Youngkin’s job performance, while 42% disapprove. In comparison, 39% approve of President Trump’s job performance while 58% disapprove.
Early voting in Virginia runs from September 19 until November 1, with the General Election scheduled for November 4.
Check for details with your county before heading to the polls, but regardless of where you vote, you will need to bring some form of identification.
Turnout predictions vary per party, with 56% of Republican respondents saying they’re enthusiastic about voting in this fall’s elections, 69% of Democrats saying they’re enthusiastic, and 42% of Independents saying the same.
For more information on candidates and early voting rules, check out WUSA9’s Virginia Voter Guide.