Democrats have long controlled the U.S. House seats in Texas in the Rio Grande Valley, but Republicans set their sights on three Congressional districts along the border. Not only would the flipping of the Rio Grande Valley represent a sea change in Texas politics, but could also contribute to the Republicans’ taking back the House.
The Rio Grande Valley stretches several hundred miles along the border with Mexico. In West Texas, the 23rd Congressional District has long flip flopped between Democrats and Republicans, although Democrats’ best chance to flip in 2018 fell flat when Republican Will Hurd won by less than 1,000 votes and after he retired in 2020, Republican Tony Gonzalez easily won by over 11,000 votes.
Moving east, the three other Congressional districts along the border have been long Democratic strongholds. Rep. Henry Cuellar has represented the 28th Congressional District since 2002, and his district was actually redistricted this cycle to be bluer. But he faced primary challenges in 2020 and 2022 from Jessica Cisneros, who had once been his intern and was backed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and other progressives. The 2022 contest went to a runoff with Cuellar winning by less than 300 votes.
Cuellar was part of an FBI investigation earlier this year, and although he was not the target, his house was still searched. He denied any wrongdoing.
He now faces Republican Cassy Garcia, a former aide to Sen. Ted Cruz.
Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez was first elected to represent the 15th Congressional District in 2016, when Hillary Clinton won the district. But the 15th District was changed in redistricting, making it a district that former President Donald Trump would have won by three points, leaving Gonzalez to try his luck in the new 34th Congressional District, which President Joe Biden would have won by 16 points in 2020.
The old 34th Congressional District was vacated by Democratic Rep. Filomen Vega, who stepped down earlier this year. Gonzalez didn’t run in the special election in May for the district’s old lines – which were less blue than the new district – and the seat was won by a Republican, Mayra Flores. In her victory speech on May 1, she said the area had been “taken for granted.”
The new 34th District is more blue, but Republicans have invested heavily in Flores since her surprise win and voters are now deciding between two incumbents. Democrats blamed a lack of interest and investment, two problems that are still issues in November.
In Gonzalez’s old district – the 15th – Democrat Michelle Vallejo has been trying to defend the seat against Republican Monica de la Cruz. The DCCC and the House Majority PAC opted against spending money on ads in the race, according to the Texas Tribune, a sign of national Democrats’ lack of enthusiasm in the race.
In a sign of how bullish Republicans are on the region, the state’s top Republican, Gov. Greg Abbbott, will be holding his election night party in McAllen – part of the 15th Congressional District.
