Live Coverage: Georgia Senate runoff election

Fulton County just dropped about 45,000 votes, which broke heavily for Senator Warnock. That addition to the count puts him back ahead in the count, which I do believe is the seventh time that the lead has changed in this evolving ballot count.

Here is the quick math on why Democrats are still feeling quite confident despite Herschel Walker retaking a very narrow lead for the third time tonight:

If you only count counties that have >10% of their votes outstanding, that means that roughly 635,000 votes are on the table, according to NY Times estimates. 519,000 of them are in Democratic counties carried by Raphael Warnock in November. That’s 81.7% of the outstanding vote. 

In other words, Walker is getting dangerously close to tapped out.

It seems as if DeKalb County is determined just to make this death by a million cuts for Herschel Walker. Another drop of roughly 55,000-60,000 votes, which broke heavily for Sen. Raphael Warnock, and despite a number of red counties finishing their tallies, the incumbent is now back up by 0.2% (8,000 votes).

For those just checking, we are now over two hours into this election night in Georgia, the one that will determine the balance of power in the Senate come January. At this moment, with about 2.62 million votes counted, it is basically tied, with Republican Herschel Walker staked to a lead that amounts to a fraction of a percentage point (0.14%, or 3900 votes total). With about 600,000 votes still left to count in heavily blue counties, it seems likely that incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock will reclaim the lead at some point soon.