A Libertarian candidate running for a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona has dropped out of the race and is endorsing Republican Blake Masters, just one week before Election Day.
Libertarian Marc Victor said in a statement shared by Masters’ campaign Tuesday that he and the Republican had taken part in a discussion to exchange ideas on issues like the economy, taxation, education and foreign policy.
“After that discussion, I believe it is in the best interests of freedom and peace to withdraw my candidacy and enthusiastically support Blake Masters for United States Senate,” Victor said.
The U.S. Senate seat in Arizona is one of a few midterms races seen as key in deciding which party will hold control of the upper chamber of Congress. FiveThirtyEight’s election model currently shows that there is a “dead heat” between Democrats and Republicans for control of the Senate, with both parties winning 50 out of 100 election outcomes.
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Democratic Senator Mark Kelly has generally held a narrow lead in the Senate race, with FiveThirtyEight’s current polling average giving him a 3.3-point advantage over his opponent. But Masters, who has also been endorsed by former President Donald Trump, described Victor’s late-stage endorsement as a “major boost of momentum.”
Experts who spoke to Newsweek questioned if Victor’s support would be the eleventh-hour push Masters may need in order to secure a victory on Election Day.
“I certainly think it’s good news for Blake Masters. In a race that seems to be this tight, anything can help,” Christopher Devine, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Dayton, told Newsweek.
But Devine also noted that Victor had not gained much traction in polls before dropping out of the race, so the effect of his endorsement may be limited.
“There’s not a lot of support for Victor to share with others,” he said.
In a Monday poll from The New York Times/Siena College, Victor received 1 percent of support compared to Kelly’s 51 percent and Masters’ 45 percent. Victor received a slightly higher 3 percent in an OH Predictive Insights poll late last month that gave Kelly a tighter lead of 48 percent compared to Masters’ 46 percent.
Devine, who has published research in the past on the Libertarian Party, said that depending on the election at hand, many Libertarian or other third party voters may opt not to vote at all if forced to choose between the two main political parties. When Libertarians do choose from the two parties, they tend to lean toward Republicans, he said.
“For those who were going to support Mark Victor, a good number of them may not vote, at least not for this race,” Devine said. “But of those who do vote, I would expect that most of them are going to favor Blake Masters over Mark Kelly.”
Andrew Ballard, an assistant professor at American University’s department of government, told Newsweek that he believes endorsements generally matter when they come from someone who is popular and viewed as credible to some portion of the public, as well as actually change behavior.
“So while I think that Victor’s endorsement would be most likely to resonate with Libertarian voters, most of those folks would be more likely to vote for a Republican than a Democrat if there’s no Libertarian in the race,” Ballard said. “In other words, while the endorsement might give a small boost at the margins, it seems like Victor dropping out is going to move the needle more.”
Pre-election voting has already begun across the United States. CNN, citing data from election officials, Edison Research and Catalist, reported Sunday that more than 20.7 million pre-election ballots had been cast in 46 states.
Newsweek reached out to Kelly and Masters’ campaigns for comment.