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Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour party has suffered a seismic by-election defeat in a traditional Welsh stronghold, losing Caerphilly to the nationalist party Plaid Cymru.
The 3,848-vote majority secured by Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle in the Welsh Senedd assembly seat deals a blow to Starmer’s leadership, and comes ahead of elections in May that could end more than a quarter century of Labour leadership in Wales.
The result highlights how Labour is exposed on its left flank after tacking to the right on issues including immigration and crime in an attempt to counter the rise of Reform UK.
However, the failure of Nigel Farage’s party to seize the seat will come as some relief to Labour, as Reform maintains a double-digit lead over Starmer’s party in opinion polls.
Whittle took more than 47 per cent of the vote in the result announced early on Friday, beating Reform candidate Llŷr Powell into second place with 36 per cent.
The Labour candidate, Richard Tunnicliffe, picked up 11 per cent of the vote while the Tories’ Gareth Potter received 2 per cent.
Whittle becomes Plaid’s 13th member of the 60-strong Senedd in Cardiff Bay.
In Caerphilly’s previous contest for the seat in the Senedd, in 2021, Labour registered a majority of more than 5,000 on 46 per cent of the vote.
The seat in the South Wales Valleys, just north of Cardiff, has been consistently held by Labour in the Senedd since devolution in 1999.
Caerphilly has continuously returned Labour MPs to the House of Commons for more than a century.
Reform UK had been the bookmakers’ favourite to win the contest after an opinion poll gave it a small lead last week.
The defeat for Labour means the party has lost its effective majority in the Senedd, which it has previously sustained with the support of the assembly’s sole Liberal Democrat member.
Dropping from 29 to 28 seats in the 60-strong assembly now means Labour must turn to either Plaid or, possibly, one of the two independent members for support on Senedd votes.
The by-election result will be seen as a significant omen ahead of local and regional elections in May, across Wales, Scotland and England.
A defeat for Labour in the Senedd elections next spring could raise serious questions over Starmer’s leadership barely two years into his premiership.