Senator Joe Manchin, a West Virginia Democrat, was handed grim news about his popularity on Monday ahead of his potential reelection campaign next year.
Democratic control of the Senate in the 2024 election will hinge on a handful of Democratic-held seats in deeply conservative states, including Manchin in West Virginia. Although the state gave former President Donald Trump, 68 and 69 percent of its vote in 2016 and 2020 respectively, it also reelected Manchin, a former governor who for years enjoyed bipartisan support, by three percentage points in 2018, when a “blue wave” fueled by Trump’s unpopularity helped Democrats win in traditionally Republican areas.
Manchin, a centrist who has at times opposed aspects of President Joe Biden‘s agenda, has not revealed his plans for 2024—refusing to say whether he will run for reelection, launch a third-party presidential bid or retire at the end of the current term.
But a new Morning Consult poll released Monday delivered troubling news for Manchin’s reelection chances.
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The poll, which surveyed 2,112 voters from April 4 to June 30, found that 55 percent of West Virginia voters disapprove of Manchin’s job performance, while only 39 percent gave him positive marks. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.
Manchin is the second least popular Senator in the United States, according to the poll. Only Senator Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, received lower approval from his constituents.
The Morning Consult poll was the latest to suggest Manchin may have an uphill battle to climb if he chooses to run for reelection next year.
A survey conducted by East Carolina University among 957 registered voters for Governor Jim Justice, who is running as a Republican and is viewed as the frontrunner in the primary, leading Manchin by 22 points—though Manchin was more competitive against Representative Alex Mooney, a Republican also seeking the Senate seat.
Newsweek reached out to Manchin’s political team for comment via email.
Senate Control in 2024 Hinges on Manchin and Other Red State Democrats
Manchin is among three Democrats representing states expected to vote for Republicans on the presidential level up for reelection in 2024. Manchin, Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown and Montana Senator Jon Tester are defending Senate seats in Republican-leaning states.
Democrats currently only hold a slim margin of 51 seats, meaning that Republicans may only need to flip one or two of those seats to win control of the Senate, depending on who wins the presidency, as the vice president plays tiebreaker in an evenly-divided Senate.
This means control of the Senate will likely come down to these three red-state Democrats.
Manchin is generally viewed as the most vulnerable of the three red-state Democrats, as Ohio and Montana are not quite as Republican-leaning as West Virginia. Furthermore, recent polls show Brown with an edge against his Republican opponents, though no recent polls have been conducted of Montana’s Senate race.
Additionally, Arizona’s Senate race, where it remains unknown whether Democrat-turned-independent Kyrsten Sinema will run for reelection, is also viewed as a competitive race. Democrats also hope to be competitive against GOP Texas Senator Ted Cruz.