Republican efforts at beating former President Donald Trump in the 2024 GOP presidential primary may be futile, according to two historical trends.

Last November, Trump announced that he is running for president, setting up a possible rematch of the 2020 election, in which he lost to President Joe Biden. But unlike 2020, he is set to face a number of high-profile Republicans, some of whom—including former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson—have already announced their campaigns in hopes of building an anti-Trump coalition to prevail in the primary.

However, the former president remains deeply popular among conservative voters. Polls show him retaining high favorability with these voters, despite concerns that Trump may be toxic to swing voters. Some Republicans turned on Trump after the GOP’s underwhelming 2022 midterm elections when Trump-endorsed candidates faltered in key swing races. Furthermore, the GOP base has appeared to rally around Trump amid his recent legal troubles, including his indictment in New York City earlier this month.

Two historic trends show that any potential challengers are likely to face an uphill battle in defeating the former president.

From left: former South Carolina Governor and United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley, former President Donald Trump, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. GOP efforts at beating Trump in the 2024 GOP race may prove to be futile, according to two historic trends.
Scott Olson/Getty Images; JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images; Scott Olson/Getty Images

Polling

Trump has consistently been in the lead in most of the polls of the 2024 primary, with most of his opponents typically polling in the single-digits. Polls show his top potential opponent being Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, whose embrace of right-wing culture war issues has earned him support from some conservative voters.

But even DeSantis, who has not formally announced a presidential campaign, has trailed Trump in most polls.

The most recent polling of the Republican primary shows Trump winning more than 50 percent of the vote. The Harvard/Harris poll, conducted from April 18 to 19, found that 55 percent of GOP voters would support Trump. Meanwhile, 20 percent said they would back DeSantis. Former Vice President Mike Pence received support from 7 percent of voters, while Haley earned the backing of 4 percent.

In an aggregate of polling by FiveThirtyEight, Trump leads the field with an average of 50.7 percent, while DeSantis averages support from 24.9 percent. Other candidates have polling averages in the single digits.

Newsweek reached out to the Trump campaign for comment via email.

Endorsements

Meanwhile, Trump is also leading in a second metric that indicates success in a presidential primary: endorsements.

As of April 21, about 60 Republicans serving in either the U.S. House of Representatives or Senate have announced they are supporting his 2024 presidential campaign, including some of the most prominent conservative voices including Georgia Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene.

Trump has also boasted about receiving endorsements from nearly a dozen Florida representatives, who chose the former president over DeSantis, who could receive more endorsements if he formally makes a campaign official. The primary elections have barely begun, leaving plenty of time for other elected officials to make their endorsements.

According to FiveThirtyEight, endorsements have been a critical indicator of which candidate would receive the most support from voters ahead of the primary elections, which have historically kicked off in Iowa.

One notable exception to this was Trump himself, who trailed former Florida Governor Jeb Bush in endorsements during the 2016 election. At the time, Trump faced more backlash from mainstream Republicans, many of whom have come around to supporting him during his administration.

Still, some have argued Trump should not be the 2024 nominee, pointing to his weaknesses among swing voters, who typically decide which candidate will prevail in close races. However, these two indicators suggest their efforts to replace him at the top of the ticket may falter.

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