Global copper producers benefited from robust China demand in 1H as decarbonization drivers offset a weak property market, but that may change unless Beijing stimulates more assertively. Mined supply could return strongly until 2025, tipping the market into a modest, multiyear surplus. South America’s challenging regulatory and political environments, which impede delivery of new mines, remain solid midterm supports. In this report, our interactive copper supply-and-demand model analyzes risks and opportunities for the rest of the decade.
Demand for electric vehicles and renewables could remain decisive drivers over the next two decades, offsetting the negative pull from China’s maturing economy and sustaining consumption at or slightly above long-term trends. Yet in the near term, copper could fall below $8,000 a ton, with marginal cost support kicking in at $7,400.
Bloomberg
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