Fantasy Billboard: 2023 Sleepers and Busts

The amount of sleep required by the average person is five minutes more. But don’t doze off during your Fantasy draft when there are Sleepers to snag and Busts to avoid.

Don’t give up on Stafford just yet. He is only one season removed from his stellar 4,886 yards and 41 TDs season. Maybe he had a Super Bowl hangover, but Stafford did not play well before succumbing to injury in 2022. However, with a porous Rams defense forcing a lot of catch-up play, expect Stafford to bounce back with over 4,000 yards and 25 TDs. Why? Because Cooper Kupp and 2021 2nd rounder Tutu Atwell are healthy, Cam Akers looked amazing by year’s end, and TE Tyler Higbee will stop being ignored in the game plan. I’m not advising drafting Stafford as your starter, but if he’s still available in the later rounds, there are worse choices for your backup QB.

I’m doubling down. I thought Moore would be a sleeper for the Jets last year, only to be stymied by horrific quarterback play. Shipped off to Cleveland so that Aaron Rodgers could bring his playmates with him to New York, Moore has a new lease on life. His QB is now Deshaun Watson, so Elijah prophetically sees a bright future. He’s an elite talent who will shine opposite Amari Cooper. In Weeks 6-12 of 2021, Elijah had 35 receptions for 472 yards and six TDs. For that seven-game stretch, he was the third highest scoring WR in Fantasy, behind only Deebo Samuel and Cooper Kupp.

When future Hall of Fame TE Jason Witten retired in 2019, the Cowboys didn’t miss a beat with Dalton Schultz. His 2,000 yards on 198 receptions for 17 TDs ranks 7th for TEs since 2020. Dalton went southwest from Dallas, signing a one-year “prove it” contract for $9 million with Houston. He will take young QB C.J. Stroud under his wing and be the same reliable safety outlet that Dak Prescott counted on in Dallas. The dearth of WR experience and depth in Houston will only drive-up Schultz’ usage. He will finish as a top 12 TE.

It’s rare when a backup clearly has more talent than the starter. Just as Tony Pollard should have started over Zeke Elliott in Dallas last year, I’m surprised Najee Harris has kept Warren on the bench. I think it has more to do with Harris’ first round status. Warren went undrafted. But last season Warren averaged a yard more per carry and two yards more per reception than Harris. As the workhorse, Harris plodded his way to the 16th best RB in Fantasy. He’s still ahead of Warren in all venues, but should anything happen to Harris, Warren is in serious top ten discussion. Stash him on your bench.

[ Fantasy Billboard: Our top picks for the breakout players for the 2023 NFL season ]

There’s a black hole in Vegas, and Jimmy G is at the bottom of it looking up. No Darren Waller, no Josh Jacobs (for now), no way I draft Garoppolo. I usually discount injurie-prone players, but Jimmy G is just too fragile. He’s only played more than 10 games in a year twice. Even if he gives you a few good outings throwing to Davante Adams, why waste a draft pick on him knowing full well you’ll be scouring the waiver wire by Week 11?

He’s baaaaaaack! When we last saw Odell, he was streaking across the field in the 2021 Super Bowl, only to tear his ACL in a freak non-contact injury. He hasn’t played since. Odell has been remarkably average since 2020, totaling 67 receptions, 856 yards and 8 TDs with the Browns and Rams. That’s a far cry from his 2014-16 Giants glory days (288 receptions, 4,122 yards and 35 TDs). Owners will draft Odell with visions of his one-handed backwards touchdown catch against Dallas. Sorry folks, that was nine long years ago. You’re better off remembering his lost Super Bowl and passing on him.

Faster than a speeding bullet, able to leap tall linebackers in a single bound, but I wouldn’t draft Toney with the last pick in any draft. The man is made of papier-mâché, and I’m tired of watching him break apart. Even as I write this, he’s out for all of training camp after a “minor” knee surgery. He’s missed 15 games in two seasons and been limited to less than 40% of offensive snaps in 11 others. That’s 26 out of 33 games he’s been hurt. Go ahead and draft him if you’re a masochist. It’s far too painful for me.

[ Fantasy Billboard: Field generals for the 2023 season ]

If you want a little action, you can always bet on Ridley. Scratched for two years straight, he’s back on track for 2023. But will this young colt beat the odds and supplant the receiving trifecta of Zay Jones (82/823/5), Christian Kirk (84/1,100/8) and Evan Engram (73/766/4)? It’s a longshot.

Next week: Draft Day Tips

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