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As they arrive at Gillette Stadium for their NFL Week 13 TNF encounter with the New England Patriots, there’s a lot that seems to be going in the right direction for the Buffalo Bills.
They’ve won two in a row since a two-game losing streak briefly dropped the Bills out of top spot in the AFC East. Oddly enough, both of those wins came at Detroit’s Ford Field. The Bills beat the Cleveland Browns there as a home team after their Nov. 20 game was relocated following a severe snowstorm in Buffalo. Then on Thanksgiving, the Bills returned to Detroit to beat the Lions 28-25.
Yet at the same time, things don’t appear to be fully back to normal for the Bills. They are 3-2 straight up but just 1-4 against the spread over the past five games. The recent struggles have seen Buffalo slip from Super Bowl favorites to the second betting choice to win the NFL title at odds of +450.
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Perhaps a trip to New England is just what the doctor ordered to fix all that ails the Bills. Buffalo has left town a winner in four of the last five visits to face the Patriots. The Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in the past four games at Gillette Stadium.
Buffalo is set as a 4-point road favorite in this game, which has an 8:15 pm ET kickoff on Thursday, December 1.
Must Win For Patriots?
It might seem a stretch to consider this to be a do or die game for the Patriots. However, a loss with drop New England to 6-6 and three games behind the Bills in the AFC East. Already, the Patriots are the +2800 fourth choice to win the AFC East title, so another loss within the division would certainly close the door on any divisional title hopes.
After locking down the Indianapolis Colts and New York Jets to three points apiece in successive victories, New England was lit up for 33 points by the Minnesota Vikings in a Thanksgiving road loss. That equaled a season-high for points allowed by the Pats.
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The Patriots are 2-3 straight up in games against teams currently occupying an NFL playoff position. Both wins came at the expense of the New York Jets. Thursdays are generally kind to New England. The Patriots have won nine of their last 11 Thursday games. New England is also 7-3 ATS in the club’s last 10 home games.
Teams Afflicted With 20-20 Vision
Analyzing the keys to victory in this game, perhaps it all begins with the number 20. The Patriots can’t guarantee victory if they score 20 points. But they can rest assured of defeat when they surrender 20 points.
The Patriots are 0-5 SU this season when surrendering 20+ points. The offense has scored fewer than 20 points in four games. They are 4-3 SU when scoring 20+ points in a game this season.
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The Bills have surrendered at least 20 points in each of the past four games and in seven games this season. Buffalo is 4-3 SU in those games.
New England has scored 20 points in just two of the past seven games against Buffalo. The Patriots have lost each of the past four games to the Bills in which Buffalo has scored a minimum of 20 points.
At least one team in this rivalry has been held under 20 points in nine of the last 11 meetings.
Bills vs Patriots Betting Trends
Oddly enough, despite the evidence of low-scoring in recent games, the over has gone 4-1-1 on the total in the past six Bills vs Patriots games. The total for this game opened at 45.5 points. It’s since shortened to 43.5 points.
Buffalo was a 5.5-point favorite in the opening line, so that’s also shortened in favor of New England. The betting public, though, is getting their action down in the Bills.
In the public betting trends at DraftKings Sportsbook, the Bills are the people’s choice. Buffalo is garnering 60% of handle and 75% of bets in terms of public spread splits. Moneyline splits are leaning even more in the direction of the Bills. There’s 82% of handle and 83% of bets backing Buffalo.
The public split on the total is with the over. It’s getting 55% of handle and 70% of bets. In their last six road games, as well as their last seven games as a road favorite, the Bills have gone under every time.
Another unique trend to watch is that when it comes to pass, New England doesn’t want Jones to keep up. When Patriots quarterback Mac Jones passes for less than 200 yards, New England is 6-2. When he goes over 200 yards, the Pats are 8-10. Last week, Jones threw for a career-high 382 yards in the loss to the Vikings.
Pick: Buffalo Bills -4.
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