There was once a time, way back in December 2022, when some questioned if Avatar: The Way of Water would be a profitable enterprise or sink to the bottom of the sea. (To be fair, the conversation was partially encouraged by Avatar auteur James Cameron himself, who referred to his film as “the worst business case in movie history.”) Well, hindsight may always be 20-20, even when it’s in 3D and at a higher frame rate, but those who said to never bet against Cameron are now truly vindicated.
As the 3-day Martin Luther King weekend draws to a close, box office receipts for the Avatar sequel have proven to be better than expected, securing an estimated $40 million domestic haul in its fifth weekend to reach $572.4 million. This suggests much stronger legs, as they say in the industry, than the wildly successful Spider-Man: No Way Home, which was released at the same time in December last year. The Tom Holland-starring superhero picture made $24.6 million over the same holiday weekend.
Factor in international box office and, as per The Numbers, the tale of Jake Sully and his family have now grossed $1.903 billion (<—with a B!), so very very close to the $2 billion number that Cameron cited as what they’d need to call the picture a success.
Moreover, it suggests that just some time this week the Na’vi will swim (or is that swing?) past Peter Parker on the all-time worldwide top ten list. Last year’s Spider-Man: Far From Home finished its run at $1.910 billion. Considering the strength of this weekend’s performance, it seems assured that Avatar will soon swap places with the Marvel picture and climb to number six.
Avengers: Infinity War is at number five with $2.048 billion. Seems doable. What about Star Wars: The Force Awakens at $2.064 billion? It’s not a sure thing, but it’s possible. After that? Well, the number three ranked movie of all time is one of Cameron’s own: Titanic at $2.207 billion, which will only go higher once it is re-released (in high frame rate where available) on Valentine’s Day this year.
As far as the ongoing conflict between Na’vi and Sky People on Pandora is concerned, it has been well-documented that Cameron and company shot “95 percent” of Avatar 3 before The Way of Water ever hit theaters, as well as “the first act” of an Avatar 4. Furthermore, a script for Avatar 5 has already been distributed to the main cast. Specifics about the upcoming movies are vague (the rumored title for the next one is The Seed Bearer) and there is talk that, much like part two introduced us to water-based Na’vi, the next one will do the same with fire. We won’t know for certain until December 2024.
Jordan Hoffman
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