As demand for clean, green electricity grows, so must the reliability of the grid

Twenty years ago today, trees came in contact with major power lines in Ohio and triggered a series of events that turned the lights out for 50 million people across the Northeast. It was Aug. 14, 2003, and it remains one of the most significant power failures in history. The 2003 Blackout was blamed for causing upwards of 90 deaths, stranding more than 400,000 subway riders, and cost an estimated $7-$10 billion in economic losses during the 29-hour outage. Like other major events, lessons are learned, and changes implemented.

While significant efforts have been made to enhance grid reliability and prevent blackouts, the possibility of major power failures can never be entirely ruled out. Right now, the New York State Independent Grid Operator (NYISO), which operates the state’s electrical grid, has been issuing multiple warnings about supply gaps in the clean energy transition and not enough people are listening. In fact, the authority reported that electricity supply is “projected to be deficient for all years 2025 through 2033″ should state planned power plant retirements continue to outpace replacement power.

The lack of adequate electric supply to meet new demand for all electric appliances and heating systems will lead to shortages and rolling blackouts beginning as early as 2024. This is something that’s never happened before in New York, but if you want to see where it has happened — look at California.

New York has gone backwards on the energy highway. In 2003, there was 40,647 megawatts (MW) of generating capacity versus 36,894 MW in 2023. Power reserve margins are even tighter and continue to tighten. In 2003 the system enjoyed a 30% cushion; meanwhile, today, that number is at 20% and, as the grid operator warns, will soon be short 446 MW, causing cascading power outages if nothing is done.

Control of the tenuous energy situation can be gained in two simple steps to strengthen reliability and re-establish an all of the above energy strategy.

First, prioritizing reliability is essential. Taking a “do no harm approach” will protect the health and safety of millions of New Yorkers by maintaining access to reliable power. For example, during the 2003 Blackout four out of New York City’s 75 hospitals experienced a temporary loss of power due to equipment issues that were resolved within 165 minutes. Had there not been any backup fossil power, more lives would have been lost along with untold amounts of vital life-saving medical supplies.

Yet, a 2019 state policy seemingly bans 3,300 MW of electricity that helps meet rising demand and stabilizes the energy grid. The decision to deny access to reliable power before any new renewable electricity generation is installed is wrong. Pulling the plug, as NYISO warns, would leave ratepayers in the dark.

The grid operator also projects that New York would need to double or triple its electricity generation under state climate mandates as it seeks to electrify most household appliances and building heating systems, as well as vehicles. According to NYISO, between 111-124 gigawatts (GW) of new or modified generation must be in service by 2040, triple the amount from today’s existing thermal generating capacity of 37.4 GW.

We can avoid a policy-driven blackout by taking more prudent steps toward embracing an all of the above energy strategy to implement a “just transition” while reducing both the cost of electricity and carbon emissions. Numerous zero-emission technologies are available to enhance efficiency and decarbonize electricity. This includes clean hydrogen, renewable natural gas, biogas, thermal energy systems, and advanced nuclear power–each of which are reliable 24/7 regardless of weather conditions. These types of green infrastructure generate middle class sustaining jobs and solidifies reliability for years to come.

The New York City Housing Authority is leading the way with its acquisition of 20,000 heat pumps to cool and heat the homes of its residents, slashing energy costs and emissions. Installing ground source heat pumps will increase energy efficiency substantially. Similar assistance is needed for New York ratepayers seeking to comply with Local Law 97 or other statewide climate mandates.

We want to avoid future blackouts and move to cleaner technology for the sake of our planet and our children’s futures. By creating access to clean, reliable, and affordable electricity made in-state that works 24/7 without interruption and independent of the weather, we can achieve a smooth transition to a clean energy future and build the clean energy workforce of tomorrow.

Murphy is an international representative of United Association, representing 367,000 union plumbers, fitters, welders and service techs in the U.S. and Canada and member of the Clean Energy Jobs Coalition-NY representing more than 230,000 union energy workers, management, and affiliated environmental and engineering groups in New York State.