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Crude oil prices climbed Friday alongside risk assets, with attention focusing on the OPEC+ meeting Sunday in Vienna, where ministers will decide whether to give existing production cuts more time to take effect, or take further pre-emptive action to lift prices.
The conventional wisdom has held that OPEC+ would be unlikely to do anything new, since the most recent cuts only came into force in May, meaning the group would allow for more time for them to take effect on the oil market before taking any further action.
But late Friday, Reuters reported OPEC+ was indeed discussing an additional 1M bbl/day cut as a possible option, which would take the total volume of reductions to 4.66M bbl/day, or ~4.5% of global demand, since the group’s last full gathering in October.
Nevertheless, Brent crude has since tumbled nearly 20%, dropping as low as $72/bbl in recent days.
Front-month Brent crude (CO1:COM) for August delivery jumped 2.5% Friday but ended -1.1% for the week to $76.13/bbl, while U.S. Nymex July crude (CL1:COM) gained 2.3% Friday but settled -1.3% for the week to $71.74/bbl.
ETFs: (NYSEARCA:USO), (BNO), (UCO), (SCO), (DBO), (USL), (DRIP), (GUSH), (USOI), (NRGU)
Weak prices would provide plenty of incentive for OPEC+ to shore up revenues by cutting production, and many members including Saudi Arabia need higher prices to help balance their budgets and fund large spending projects.
But another cut could backfire, sending the signal that the cartel has a gloomy outlook for oil demand.
Energy stocks, as indicated by the Energy Select SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA:XLE), ended the holiday-shortened week +1.4%.
Top 10 gainers in energy and natural resources during the past 5 days: (VGAS) +62.5%, (ETRN) +53.9%, (EOSE) +28.5%, (EPOW) +27.5%, (CGAU) +22.1%, (IE) +20.4%, (SMHI) +18%, (NRGV) +17.1%, (NXE) +17.1%, (EVA) +16.6%.
Top 5 decliners in energy and natural resources during the past 5 days: (ROC) -35.3%, (METC) -8.9%, (BROG) -6.5%, (GATO) -6.3%, (NMM) -6.1%.
Source: Barchart.com