How to prevent the third Intifada: Israeli and Palestinian leaders, helped by America and the Arab states, must find peace

Israelis and Palestinians are headed for yet another Intifada, or uprising. This outbreak of serious violence will be different from the first two uprisings and likely more destructive. Many people — the majority of whom will be Palestinians — will be killed and injured; property will be destroyed; and thousands will be dislocated from their homes.

Preventing this uprising is possible, but will require determined Israeli and Palestinian leadership, and a strong push from the United States and the international community. It is not too late to stop the downward slide toward a third Intifada.

The coming Intifada will not resemble either of the previous violent uprisings. The first Intifada erupted in late 1987, and became known as the “Intifada of the stones.” The violence and counter-violence nevertheless took a heavy toll — about 2,000 deaths, with the ratio of Palestinian to Israeli deaths being about 3:1.

In a period of substantial international and regional upheaval — the first Gulf War, collapse of the Soviet Union, end of apartheid in South Africa, and reunification of Germany — this Intifada prompted the United States to lead an effort that produced the Madrid peace conference in 1991 and subsequent bilateral and multilateral negotiations.

The second Intifada erupted in September 2000 in the wake of the failed Camp David summit. Palestinian violence and Israel’s response turned lethal from the beginning, and the toll was significantly higher – more than 4,300 casualties, with the same 3:1 ratio between Palestinians and Israelis.

This Intifada did not lead to a peace breakthrough, but several consequential actions followed— the Clinton peace “parameters” that narrowed the negotiating gaps between the parties; President Bush’s announcement of U.S. support for creation of a Palestinian state; and Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s decision to withdraw all settlements, settlers and the Israeli army from Gaza.

Palestinian violence and terrorism and Israeli counter-violence have resulted from two different sets of circumstances. Palestinian individuals — termed “lone wolves” — have no attachments to political movements. Several new groups of militants, mostly in the northern West Bank cities of Jenin and Nablus, are not affiliated with either the traditional nationalist or Islamic movements. Increasing anger among Palestinians is being fed by increasing militancy among Israeli settlers and some within the Israeli ruling coalition. In particular, strong-arm Israeli police tactics on the Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif have exacerbated tensions, fed by increasing Palestinian provocations.

The first requirement to prevent another Intifada is for Israel and Palestine to stop the slide toward violence among Palestinian youth and groups and among Israeli settlers. Both must dial back the mounting tensions in Jerusalem. The Palestinian security force and the Israeli army must send a message that violence emanating from either side will not be tolerated. Determined and creative American leadership left no room for Palestinian, Israeli, and Arab leaders to say no to peace.

Second, the nascent dialogue between Israel and Palestine in recent meetings in Aqaba, Jordan, and Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, must be continued; and the modest steps they agreed upon must be implemented. The United States, Egypt, and Jordan — full participants in those meetings — must monitor implementation of the commitments undertaken, and hold Israelis and Palestinian accountable for what they have undertaken to do or to stop doing.

Third, while neither Palestinians nor Israelis show any inclination to talk about peace, the United States and the international community can keep the goal of peace on the table through a positive political vision statement, endorsed by the UN Security Council. Such statements can help shake Palestinians and Israelis out of their cynicism and doubt about the future. For example, the Arab Peace Initiative in 2002 or the Ayalon-Nusseibeh principles can be used to formulate a new vision of peace between Israelis and Palestinians.

It is not too late for more active diplomacy to stop the deterioration on the ground and to instill even a modicum of hope in relations between Israelis and Palestinians. Left alone at this point, the parties are heading to a third Intifada, likely more violent, more damaging, and with longer-lasting effect than anything seen previously.

The United States, Egypt, and Jordan — supported by the Abraham Accord countries and the broader international community — need to insist that the Aqaba and Sharm commitments be fulfilled and that the dialogue continue and intensify. The international community can articulate a vision statement that gives meaning to the effort to de-escalate tensions on the ground. And Israeli and Palestinian leaders must show the fortitude and determination to control those in their communities bent on violence. Preventive actions now are critical.

Kurtzer, former U.S. ambassador to Egypt and Israel, is a professor at the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs.