Here’s What Happens Next in the Abortion Pill Case

The government’s application would initially be addressed to Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr., the member of the court who oversees the Fifth Circuit. He would surely refer a matter of such consequence to the full court.

What might the Supreme Court do in the interim?

The Supreme Court may enter an administrative stay while it considers the application. Such stays do not necessarily predict whether the court will enter an actual stay.

If the court does enter a real stay, it has two basic choices about adjudication of the merits: to let the appeal proceed in the appeals court or to grant “certiorari before judgment,” leapfrogging the appeals court and proceeding to hear the case itself, which typically involves another round of briefing and oral arguments.

What happens if the appeals court acts first?

If the appeals court goes first, the justices would almost certainly afterward be presented with a petition from the losing party seeking review of the appeals court’s ruling. They would then have the opportunity, but not the obligation, to hear the case. Were the appeals court to rule in favor of the F.D.A., for instance, there is a fair prospect that the Supreme Court would deny review.

What if the Supreme Court takes the case?

If the Supreme Court takes the case right away, a procedure that has become more common in recent years, it could schedule an argument before the end of the current term, though that would be moving with unusual speed. Or it could set the case down for arguments in its next term, which starts in October.

Finally, it is possible that both courts will refuse to extend Judge Kacsmaryk’s stay. The case would continue, but the F.D.A.’s approval of the pill would be suspended, effectively deciding the merits of the dispute in at least the short term.

Why would a ruling in Texas affect the whole country?

Nationwide rulings from a single federal judge are not unusual, though scholars and some Supreme Court justices have expressed misgivings about them. The plaintiffs in the case, groups and doctors that oppose abortion, filed their lawsuit against the F.D.A. in Amarillo, Texas, where Judge Kacsmaryk, a Trump appointee who has written critically of Roe v. Wade, is the only judge responsible for that division on the court. Critics said that amounted to judge shopping.