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Tonight at NRG Stadium in Houston, the UConn Huskies (30-8, 26-11-1 ATS) and San Diego State Aztecs (32-6, 19-16-2 ATS) will square off for the 2023 NCAA Tournament championship. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:20 p.m. E.T.
UConn advanced to the title game as the No. 4 seed in the West Region, while SDSU was the No. 5 in the South.
UConn vs San Diego State Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
| San Diego State | +7.5 (-110) | +320 | O 132.5 (-110) |
| UConn | -7.5 (-110) | -390 | U 132.5 (-110) |
The odds for Monday’s national-championship game are heavily tilted toward the Huskies. After briefly opening as 5.5-point chalk, UConn was immediately bet up to -7.5. What started as a -230 moneyline has shortened all the way to -390 at DraftKings, giving UConn a 79.6-percent implied win probability.
If that spread looks big for a title game, it is. Assuming the line closes at 7.5, it will match the largest spread for a national-championship game since 1999, when Duke was a 9.5-point favorite over, coincidentally, UConn.
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The over/under has also seen a lot of movement since Saturday night. The opening game total of 135.5 has been bet all the way down to 132.5.
Curiously, while the spread is 7.5 across the board, there are significant variations in the moneyline from sportsbook to sportsbook. DraftKings is the shortest on UConn (-390/+320), while FanDuel has the most-optimistic odds for SDSU, listing the moneyline at -345/+270 in UConn’s favor.
Can UConn Be Slowed?
Don’t let the numbers next to the names deceive you. UConn is no ordinary No. 4 seed. The Huskies entered the 2023 NCAA Tournament rated in the top five at KenPom, Torvik, and Haslametrics. After their dominant run to the title game, they became the top team in the country at all three analytics sites.
UConn is 5-0 against the spread in the NCAA Tournament, and Huskies backers haven’t had to break a sweat. None of UConn’s first five March Madness opponents was able to keep the margin in single digits. They cruised past No. 13 Iona (87-63) as 9.5-point favorites, No. 5 Saint Mary’s (70-55) as 3.5-point favorites, No. 8 Arkansas (88-65) as 3.5-point favorites, No. 3 Gonzaga (82-54) as 2.5-point favorites, and No. 5 Miami (72-59) as 7.5-point favorites.
The absolute demolition of Gonzaga seems to have served as a wake-up call for oddsmakers.
UConn now has the second-best cover percentage in Division I this season (70.3).
As they have all season, forward Adama Sanogo (17.2 PPG) and guard Jordan Hawkins (16.2 PPG) spearheaded the offense in each victory. One of the pair scored at least 20 points in each NCAA Tournament game. Sanogo is averaging just over 20 points per game in the tourney (20.2, plus 9.8 RPG) while Hawkins is at 16.4.
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San Diego State’s Date With Destiny?
SDSU’s run to the national-championship has borne little resemblance to UConn’s. The slow-paced, defense-first Aztecs only won one of their first five games by double digits and needed a pair of one-point victories in the Elite Eight and Final Four to reach this point.
Their path through the South Regional included wins over No. 12 Charleston (63-57 as 5.5-point favorites), No. 13 Furman (75-52 as 4.5-point favorites), No. 1 Alabama (71-64 as 6.5-point underdogs), No. 6 Creighton (57-56 as 2.5-point underdogs), and No. 9 Florida Atlantic (72-71 as 2.5-point favorites).
Lamont Butler’s buzzer-beater in the Final Four instantly entered March Madness lore.
The Aztec’s offense only rates 68th in overall efficiency at KenPom (compared to UConn in eighth) and they don’t have a single player averaging more than 12.7 points per game (Matt Bradley).
Their first-half performances in the two most-recent games were cause for concern. San Diego State trailed Creighton by five at the break and FAU by seven, but showed considerable physical and mental fortitude to rally in both games.
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San Diego State vs UConn Best Bet
I don’t have a strong play on the outcome here. The Huskies are terrifyingly dominant at their best, and lose to St. John’s at home when they’re having an off night. While I lean toward the stingy Aztecs covering what I expect to be a slow-paced game, my best bet for the championship is a player prop.
After a horrendous performance against Creighton (two points in just 20 minutes), Matt Bradley responded with a 21-point performance in the Final Four against Florida Atlantic, and I expect the Aztec’s senior leader to show up again. His point total for the title game has been set at just 12.5 by FanDuel, which is marginally below his season average, and I’m taking the over.
Without disparaging SDSU’s superb defense, UConn is going to find ways to score the ball, and San Diego State is going to have to find ways to reply. Expect coach Brian Dutcher to put the ball in Bradley’s hands early and often. If San Diego State manages to hold the lead late and the game turns into a free-throw contest, the Aztecs will do their best to get Bradley to the line. He leads the team in free-throw percentage, sitting right on 80 percent for the season.
Best bet: Matt Bradley over 12.5 points (-105) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Sports Betting Dime provides exclusive sports-betting content to Newsweek, including picks, analysis, tools and sportsbook offers to help bettors get in on the action. Please wager responsibly.