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After the Green Bay Packers blew a fourth-quarter lead to the Detroit Lions on Sunday Night Football, the NFL playoff bracket is officially set. The Seattle Seahawks, who edged the L.A. Rams in overtime earlier in the day, will take the final wild-card berth in the NFC.
While Geno Smith and the Seahawks make for a feel-good underdog story, oddsmakers don’t see them as a credible threat to win Seattle’s first Super Bowl since 2014. At FanDuel, the Seahawks are listed with the longest Super Bowl odds (alongside the Miami Dolphins and New York Giants).
2023 Super Bowl Odds
| Team | Odds | Implied Win Probability |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +330 | 23.3% |
| Buffalo Bills | +420 | 19.2% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +500 | 16.7% |
| San Francisco 49ers | +550 | 15.4% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +750 | 11.8% |
| Dallas Cowboys | +1300 | 7.1% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +2100 | 4.5% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +3000 | 3.2% |
| Minnesota Vikings | +3200 | 3% |
| Baltimore Ravens | +3400 | 2.9% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +4600 | 2.1% |
| Miami Dolphins | +5000 | 2% |
| New York Giants | +5000 | 2% |
| Seattle Seahawks | +5000 | 2% |
The odds at DraftKings are a little more bullish on Seattle, listing the Seahawks at +4000, tied with the Jaguars and ahead of the Giants (+5000) and Dolphins (+6000). But there is a clear demarcation between the five teams that are viewed as true contenders and the rest of the field.
The Chiefs, Bills, Eagles, 49ers, and Bengals all have an implied win probability between 11.1% and 23.3%. Their cumulative total win probability is 86.4% based on the odds at FanDuel. The cumulative total of the other nine teams is just 28.8%.
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Chiefs favored heading into 2023 playoffs
The outright favorite heading into wild-card weekend is the Kansas City Chiefs (14-3, 7-1 home), who earned the AFC’s lone bye and will face the worst-remaining seed in the divisional round. If the chalk holds, Kansas City would meet either the L.A. Chargers (10-7, 5-4 away) or Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8, 4-5 away), and project to be heavy favorites over either.
Due to the extraordinary circumstances surrounding the canceled Buffalo/Cincinnati game in Week 17, the NFL‘s competition committee agreed that, if the Chiefs and Bills meet in the AFC Championship, the game will take place at a neutral site. (The 13-3 Bills would have earned the #1 seed if they had finished with the same 14-3 record as KC.)
Eagles favored in NFC
The Philadelphia Eagles (14-3, 7-2 home) are the top-seed in the NFC and have the best odds in the conference (+500), but only by a slim margin. The San Francisco 49ers (13-4, 8-1 home, 5-3 away) are right behind the Eagles at +550, despite the prospect of an NFC Championship Game at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia.
The only other NFC team that’s shorter than +3000 is the Dallas Cowboys (+1300). Dallas (12-4, 4-4 home) had an outside chance at the top seed heading into Week 18, but are now relegated to the #5 seed and have to go on the road to face Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9, 5-4 home) on wild-card weekend.
This year’s Tampa team doesn’t strike the same fear as the 2020 and 2021 editions, but they were still over .500 at home and cruised to a 19-3 victory over Dallas in Week 1.
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No one expected the Jacksonville to be here
The biggest underdog to qualify for the playoffs this season is the Jaguars. The preseason odds to make the NFL playoffs listed Jacksonville at +400 to make the field. And anyone who made that wager likely chalked it up as a loss after the Jags limped to a 2-6 start. But a season-ending five-game win streak vaulted Jacksonville to the top of a truly abysmal AFC South. The second-place Titans finished 7-10 with a -61 point differential.
The Seahawks get the honor of biggest NFC longshot to make the playoffs (+350) followed by the New York Giants (+195).
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