El Niño is officially here and will continue to strengthen this summer and fall. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) could play a large role in this year’s hurricane season.
What is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)?
The El Niño Southern Oscillation is a climate index that measures differences in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near the equator in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. ENSO has three states: El Niño, La Niña and Neutral.
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El Niño: A warming of the ocean surface and/or above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
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La Niña: A cooling of the ocean surface and/or below-average SSTs in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
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Neutral: Neither El Niño nor La Niña. In this instance, Pacific SSTs are close to average.
Find more information on ENSO and its impact on the Atlantic hurricane season here.
Current ENSO status and predictions
An El Niño Advisory has been issued as equatorial SSTs have remained + 0.5°C above average for consecutive months in the east-central Pacific Ocean. A large area of sea surface temperature anomalies has been in excess of +1.0°C.
El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is predicted to strengthen throughout the rest of the year. There’s a high likelihood that it will persist through early spring 2027.
El Niño conditions are correlated with decreased tropical activity in the Atlantic. However, ENSO is just one index of many in tropical season forecasting. Forecasters at Colorado State University and NOAA are calling for below-normal activity this year; you can read more about the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook here.
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Spectrum News Weather Staff
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