The horse racing broadcaster picks out his best bets for the seven ITV races across Cheltenham, Musselburgh and Windsor on New Year’s Day.
It looks as if it could be a photo finish between the New Year’s Day meetings and the incoming cold snap, with seven races scheduled to be shown on ITV from three venues, including the return of a card at Windsor alongside regulars Cheltenham and Musselburgh.
First up is a 3m 1f Handicap Chase where HERAKLES WESTWOOD 4/1 (13:25 Cheltenham) can continue what has been an excellent spell for his trainer Warren Greatrex. The stable is 10/31 in December (A/E 1.31) with another eight seconds, and it is a combination of that and a greater certainty of handling the track that sees him get the vote over Katate Dori. It will require a career-best from Herakles Westwood, who paid for being out of the weights last time with a hike of seven to his rating, though it still leaves him 1lb lower than his fourth to Blaze The Way, where he hit the line well having been outpaced two out. He has progressed steadily since starting out in handicaps and is reunited with James Bowen, who has a good association with him (3/10, A/E 1.67). Connections of Katate Dori will be praying they get away first time and there is no standing start after being inconvenienced by one in both the Newbury Gold Cup and the Ultima at the Festival. On both occasions, he was slowly away and never really recovered, but his form figures at the track read 48P, which is a slight concern. Sam Thomas is another yard having a terrific season (16/47, A/E 1.57), and Katate Dori still warrants respect.
Eyes then turn to the Hogmaneigh Handicap Hurdle at Musselburgh over 2m, which provides the first test of a line of form that could prove very fruitful during the course of the afternoon via MOONBOW 3/1 (13:40 Musselburgh). He is another who has progressed well since being sent handicapping, starting out off 110 and now over a stone higher at 126. Given his preference for decent ground, a mid-season break had looked likely after his Aintree second to Ace of Spades (see below) off today’s mark, but with conditions remaining unusually quick for the time of year, he can regain the winning thread under Brian Hughes, who looked to have had the choice between Moonbow and Serious Chat, on whom he won last time at Doncaster.
Hardly a Cheltenham meeting goes by without a 2m 4f Handicap Chase, and Thursday is no exception. At the last meeting, it was the December Gold Cup where Glengouly provided a shock when able to dictate under a well-judged Sean Bowen ride. As he, like Herakles Westwood, was out of the weights that day, he is only 3lb higher, but it is the presence of other pace-setters Matata (up in trip) and Jungle Boogie (first start for yard) that could prevent a similar pace scenario here. Neither are from yards in much form — Nigel (and Willy) Twiston-Davies or Venetia Williams — and so don’t appeal as being there at the business end, but they can set things up for a closer in RISKINTHEGROUND 6/1 (14:00 Cheltenham), who didn’t get a hard time when down the field in the Coral Gold Cup and will be suited by the drop back to 2m 4f, having won over course and distance in April. He is another for whom fast ground is no concern.
The second of the Musselburgh races can see THE KALOOKI KID 9/4 (14:15 Musselburgh) land the Auld Reekie Handicap Chase for Nicky Richards. He should appreciate the return to handicap company, having found the company a bit hot at Aintree and Carlisle in conditions races. He won at the track over today’s trip in February, and whilst that hasn’t proved particularly strong form, his ability to travel well in his races is ideal on what is a track where tactical speed is a big asset.
The feature race of the day is the Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle, where KABRAL DU MATHAN 1/2 (14:35 Cheltenham) will be looking to press his Stayers’ Hurdle claims after routing a field at Haydock on his first start for Dan Skelton. The manner of that success pointed to their belief he was a Graded performer, as such a wide-margin win was always going to ruin future handicap tilts. The second horse that day, Andashan, won at Newbury on Monday, and Kabral Du Mathan looks an exciting prospect. Every year this division seems to include a horse returning to hurdles after an abortive spell chasing, and this time it is last year’s Relkeel winner Lucky Place, who has twice been beaten at odds-on over fences. Hurdles should see him in a better light, but in Kabral Du Mathan he faces a rival very much on the up, and the short-priced favourite is likely to prove too good.
My January 1s were often spent at Windsor, where the New Year’s Day Hurdle used to have a decent roll of honour, so it is good to see the fixture back in the calendar this year. This incarnation of the race is a handicap rather than its old conditions format and sees the track return to the figure-of-eight configuration of old rather than the kidney-shaped layout of last season, which seemed very much in favour of speedy horses on the pace. The longer straight can hopefully see GUARD DUTY 9/2 (14:50 Windsor) build on a promising return at Newbury, where he came right through from the back of the pack to run second to the progressive French Ship. He can be keen, so needs dropping out, but with Idy Wood and Wellington Arch likely to ensure it is not a crawl, he can be delivered at the right time by Gavin Sheehan.
The last race on ITV can complete another good day for the Skeltons courtesy of ACE OF SPADES 15/8 (15:10 Cheltenham), whose form lines will have been tested by Moonbow earlier in the afternoon at Musselburgh in the 13:40 (see above). The handicapper has been banging his head against the wall trying to keep up with Ace of Spades, who will find this a good deal easier than the competitive handicap he ran in at Haydock last time.
All the very best for the New Year, and prepare to dust off the All-Weather form books if the weekend forecast proves accurate.
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