All Eyes on Erin’s Path

RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) — Clouds continue to decrease this afternoon with a brighter patch already forming to the east of Wake County. Marine flow from the east may pop up a shower in the eastern viewing areas; however, it is not as likely towards the metro area. CAPE is minimal over land but closer to “normal” levels out by the shore; as such, there will not likely be any thunder as
precipitation moves inland, if at all.

The risk for storms on Wednesday evening and night remains. At the very least, mesoscale models depict *something*. Erin’s approach and outflow will butt up against subsidence, resulting in a very borderline case for us. Areas farther east of Wake County can see a shower. Thunder still isn’t likely just due to the environment; there is hardly any CAPE
available at all.

Speaking of Erin, it has been reduced to a Category 2 hurricane with wind speeds of 110 mph. The storm swings to the northeast late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, where it comes closest to the coast. At this time, it looks to be around 200-250 miles from shore. There are a myriad of impacts: rain of up to 2 inches, wind of up to 50 mph, and a surge of up to 6 feet are all possible from today through late Thursday. NC12 along the Outer Banks will probably sustain damage that makes it impassable in sections. There has already been water that has overtopped the road at high tide today.

Even in fair weather, beaches will remain dangerous through Thursday night with waves of 10-20 feet. There were 85 rip current rescues along the NC coast yesterday alone.

Returning to a local forecast, it could get gusty on Wednesday as a result of the possible outer band that could reach us. Any breeze will likely stick around through the night. High pressure will be off the coast on Friday, then a front is forecast to track southward, bringing the next chance for thunderstorms to the area this weekend.

Have a great evening!

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