ESG AUM set to top $40 trillion by 2030, anchor capital markets | Insights | Bloomberg Professional Services

Europe will remain the largest ESG market, based on the BI scenario, with over $18 trillion of AUM in 2030, preserving its 45% global share. That assumes its CAGR will keep pace with the 3.5% global rate, albeit dipping from 8% in 2014-22. US CAGR could shrink to 1.5%, yielding $9.5 trillion of ESG assets by 2030. The upcoming presidential election, funds’ high market concentration and ESG backlash may push its share below 25%.

Japan, Canada and Australia are small but fast-growing markets, with the former climbing 50% to $4.3 trillion in 2020-22. Though these countries may continue to outstrip the global expansion, we expect their CAGRs to stabilize at 6% as regulation and mounting scrutiny drive market consolidation. Based on these assumptions, Japan’s share could exceed 15% by 2030, with nearly $7 trillion in assets.