We hope you all had a wonderful Turkey Day. You should be thankful to Daniel for delivering on all three of his props!!! I, however, deserve coal in my stocking for hitting on only Cade Otton last week (though I couldn’t have predicted Rashid Shaheed would get hurt in the first half of the Saints’ eventual loss to the Falcons).
We’re back at it for (lucky) Week 13. Let’s make some of that holiday spending money!
QB props
Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown
Jalen Hurts is a TD machine. The dude is averaging over 10 carries per game as a quarterback! But it’s not just that, he’s seeing 1.8 goal-to-go rushes per game, which is not only first among QBs but is also surprisingly more than Christian McCaffrey sees on a per-game basis. And with the way the brotherly shove just keeps on working, why change it?
There is some risk here, though, which is why I was able to get this at -106. The 49ers have given up only five rushing touchdowns all year long, and not one of them has gone to a QB. But Hurts is no mere quarterback … give me an ANYTIME TD from Jalen Hurts against the 49ers in Week 13. — Dopp
RB props
Austin Ekeler OVER 30.5 receiving yards
My guy has underwhelmed from a rushing POV as of late, but he’s still cruising in the passing game. Ek has drawn at least six looks in all but two games since the Chargers’ Week 5 bye. He reeled in his second-highest reception total (5) for 32 yards in a tough matchup versus Baltimore last week. With Joshua Palmer on IR, Keenan Allen banged up and Quentin Johnston failing to ROI, Austin figures to see high-end volume at New England in Week 13.
Patriots coach Bill Belichick was, admittedly, able to erase Saquon Barkley last Sunday. This go-around, however, Coach B is likely to focus on eliminating Allen. Given that Ekeler has cleared the above line save three times all season, I’ll take the OVER on 30.5 receiving yards. — Loza
WR props
Tyreek Hill over 93.5 receiving yards
We’re still on Tyreek 2K watch, and I don’t think the train is slowing down this week. Tyreek & Co. draw a Commanders defense that’s allowing the third-most passing yards per game this year. That’s not good. So we’ve got a bad and banged-up Commanders secondary against Hill, who has seen at least 10 targets in six straight games, which is the longest streak of double-digit targets in the NFL this year. And he has hit the 100-yard mark in four of the past six games, against some much stiffer competition than he’ll see on Sunday.
I also like putting a Tyreek ANYTIME TD with this for a little extra juice, but at its core, give me the OVER on 93.5 receiving yards. — Dopp
Brandon Aiyuk over 59.5 receiving yards
Betting on any 49er not named Christian McCaffrey can be a dangerous game. That’s what happens on a fully loaded offense like San Fran’s! But what’s awesome about Brandon Aiyuk is that he consistently delivers regardless of volume. The 25-year-old is averaging an incredible 3.4 yards per route run (second only to Tyreek Hill).
Plus, the matchup is fire. Philadelphia’s secondary has been uber generous to opposing wideouts, allowing the third-most receiving yards (195 per game) to the position. In what has the potential to be a high-scoring game, I’d expect Aiyuk to flirt with something closer to 65 receiving yards on Sunday. — Loza
Jonathan Mingo over 2.5 receptions
The youth movement in Carolina has been imperfect, but that doesn’t mean it’s not happening. Mingo’s stock is on the rise! The rookie has seen his role increase as of late. He out-snapped Adam Thielen in back-to-back games while additionally drawing at least six looks for three straight efforts. The second-round pick out of Ole Miss is a versatile player whom the new coaching staff will likely want (read as NEED) to get a closer look at.
Plus, he’s facing a banged-up Buccaneers secondary that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to WRs. I’ll take the OVER on 2.5 grabs for the up-and-comer. — Loza
Jameson Williams over 23.5 rushing + receiving yards
The Lions have been putting Jameson Williams on the field quite a bit more since their Week 9 bye. Not only has he seen an increase in snaps and routes run over the past three games, but he’s also caught the eyes of his coaches in that time. Lions OC Ben Johnson indicated that Jamo could be more involved given his recent work on the field.
Even if we don’t see more usage this week, though I think we will, he easily has hit this mark in back-to-back games. With an expectation for another target or two and his propensity for big plays, I’m taking the OVER on 23.5 rushing + receiving yards for Jameson Williams. — Dopp
Liz Loza and Daniel Dopp
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